According to a report published on Wednesday, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin told associates that he “is considering leaving the Democratic Party if President Joe Biden and Democrats on Capitol Hill do not agree to his demand that the social infrastructure bill be reduced from $3.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion.”
Manchin will either primary Biden or switch parties and run as a Republican.
— AlecBaldwin(HABF) (@AlecBaldwin) November 2, 2021
Manchin promptly dismissed the notion. “It’s a load of nonsense,” he told CNN’s Manu Raju. “I’m powerless over hearsay.” On Thursday, Manchin told CNN’s Ali Zaslav that he had never considered switching parties, but that he had explored being an independent who caucuses with Democrats like Vermont’s Bernie Sanders and Maine’s Angus King.
“If I humiliate my Democratic colleagues, my caucus, and the President,” he says. “No one accepted that,” Manchin added. Which is the best approach for Manchin? Because switching from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party makes no sense! Begin here: Despite West Virginia’s evident Republican lean, Manchin has consistently demonstrated that he can win elections as a Democrat. Despite a difficult year for Democrats nationally, Manchin was able to save his seat in West Virginia, although with a 50 percent vote margin, against a well-funded Republican rival. Six years ago, Manchin won with 61 percent of the vote, despite Obama losing the state by 26 points to Mitt Romney.
There’s no reason to suppose Manchin will have to switch parties in order to run for a third full term in 2024. Take a look at Manchin’s present status within the Democratic Party. Some leftists, such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have chastised him for opposing, say, a wide push to change the country’s voting rights or a $3.5 trillion social safety net proposal. But, for the most part, he wields complete power. He has a direct route to Vice President Joe Biden.
Biden’s test balloon of a $1.75 trillion to $1.9 trillion spending package is significantly closer to Manchin’s $1.5 trillion proposal than the $3.5 trillion (or greater) price tag offered by Ocasio-Cortez and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. To appease Manchin’s fossil-fuel sensitivities, the Biden administration’s climate policies may end up on the cutting room floor. He’d be in the minority party in the White House until at least 2024. That fact would severely limit his capacity to influence legislation emanating from the White House, particularly if Democrats retake the Senate in the 2022 elections.
(Republicans would have a single-seat majority if Manchin switched parties.) Manchin would also join a small group of (relatively) moderate senators led by Maine’s Susan Collins and Utah’s Mitt Romney. And, like those senators, he would definitely become a key target for former President Donald Trump in his never-ending effort to purge the Republican Party of all RINOs (Republicans In Name Only). Returning to the politics of a Manchin party switch, attracting Trump’s wrath for not being “Trump-y” enough might put Manchin in jeopardy in 2024.
If Trump runs for president again that year, as all indications say he will, there will be a significant increase in Trump voters in Republican primaries around the country. Manchin might be in peril if Trump decides to flip on him and endorse a primary challenger to the incumbent. In summary, switching parties is a lot more bother for Joe Manchin than it’s worth. He should reconsider if he has ever considered it. Immediately.
